Cotton prices continue to rise, textile and apparel exports fell in February
2023-03-22 05:06:46
The surge in cotton prices was the main reason for the decline in exports in February: cotton prices began to skyrocket in the third quarter of 2010. The China Cotton Price Index (Grade 328) began at 18,000 yuan in early September last year and reached 31,300 yuan in two months. The skyrocketing has also led to higher prices for viscose, spandex and other textile materials. When cotton prices began to soar, foreign investors did not buy and sell, and chased up, and signed export orders in advance. In addition, the soaring cotton prices also caused product prices to soar. Considering that the order was signed in September/October last year, the export was about January, making 1 Monthly exports exceeded market expectations. Due to the excessive increase in cotton prices, in the face of cotton prices of more than 30,000 yuan, foreign investors were stunned by the signing of orders after November last year, while domestic enterprises were unable to purchase enough raw materials due to financial pressure. Concerns about the possible downside risks of the price, the company did not dare to sign the bill, facing the record high cotton prices, foreign and domestic production companies hope that the cotton export sigh led to a significant decline in export growth in February.
Maintaining the 10~15% growth rate of textile and apparel exports for the whole year is expected to remain unchanged. Experts believe that the monthly growth rate of textiles and apparels may still maintain a growth rate of 10-15% in February, and the short-term is due to the adverse impact of Khmer prices on exports. In the medium term, it is based on rising labor costs and a slow recovery in European and American demand.
Experts believe that March to June may determine the direction of future cotton prices, experts analyze the three major factors affecting cotton price volatility:
The first is global capital. The capital is the most important factor in pushing up cotton prices since the second half of last year. Cotton has become the leader of global agricultural futures. The second is the supply and demand situation of cotton. The improvement of supply and demand indicates that cotton prices have fallen. On the one hand, with the soaring cotton prices, it is an indisputable fact that major cotton-producing countries including the United States and China have increased their cotton planting area in 2011 (the US intentional planting area has increased by about 15%, and the Chinese intention has increased by nearly 5%). The supply and demand have improved significantly. On the other hand, in the context of the slow recovery of the economy, European and American consumers have not accepted the price increase of textile and apparel terminals caused by the Khmer price. Third, the pressure of state regulation has continuously suppressed cotton prices. Considering the cotton price downward probability is slightly larger than the upward probability, and with the emergence of factors such as the decline in export growth rate in February, such as the decline in cotton prices, the downward probability has an increasing trend.
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