June CPI may rise slightly to 1.6%, future prices may rise moderately
2023-06-27 08:09:18
The reporter comprehensively predicts that the consumer price index (CPI) will continue to rebound slightly in June, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.
(Information picture from the Internet) The weekly index of edible agricultural products announced by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the price of edible agricultural products fell for two weeks in the first three weeks of June, and rose slightly during the week. Judging from the ten-year changes in the average price of major foods in 50 cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the main food prices in mid-June, vegetable prices fell in the first quarter of the previous year, and started to increase slightly in the middle. The prices of other foods were generally stable. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that according to the above data, food prices in June are expected to continue to fall slightly, which is expected to fall by about 0.8 percentage points. In terms of non-food prices, domestic refined oil prices ushered in a downward adjustment on June 23. On the whole, it is expected that the non-food price growth this month will fall slightly to 2.2% compared with the previous month. The hikes this month will rise slightly from 1.02% in the previous month to the highest of 1.16% in the year. Therefore, it is initially determined that the CPI growth in June 2017 may be 1.6%. Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, also predicted that the CPI growth rate in June was stable at 1.6%. He said that since June, food prices have continued to fall, and industrial prices have risen and fallen. However, due to the low base effect in the same period last year, inflation is expected to remain stable in the short term in June and July. Lian Ping expects that the pressure on price increases will ease in the second half of the year. The recent CPI rose slightly year-on-year, mainly driven by the hikes, and the absolute level is not high, still below 2%. In the second half of the year, with the slight decline in aggregate demand and the deregulation of risk by regulatory policies, liquidity has tightened, and core CPI excluding food and energy will not rise significantly. Judging from the CPI tailing factor, the June tailing factor of 1.16% reached the highest point in the year and then gradually fell. It is expected that the CPI will show a trend of high in the middle and low in the middle of the year. More experts predict that CPI will show a moderate upward trend in the future. Guo Lei, chief macro analyst of GF Securities, believes that the future CPI will continue to rise moderately, and the price of oversold food will form a supporting force. There are four main reasons. First, the price of food has oversold in the current cycle. Second, the absolute price of pork has reached the lower part of the downside, and the base will be significantly reduced from July. Third, the price of vegetables also has a base. Downstream, high-frequency data continued to narrow year-on-year; fourth, egg prices have reached the bottom of the past 17 years. Xie Yaxuan, the chief analyst of China Merchants Securities, also said that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will continue to show a slow upward trend. As the global economic recovery will support the further recovery of commodity prices, support for non-food CPI, and the increase in disposable income of Chinese residents will continue to benefit from consumption. Combined with the impact of low base last year, CPI will maintain its current upward trend. It is worth noting that the CPI slowly recovered after hitting the bottom in February, and this moderate inflation momentum was mainly driven by non-food items, rather than the food items that were dominant in the past. The report released by the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute recently pointed out that consumer prices will rise moderately in the second half of the year. First, the hike factor becomes smaller. The calculation shows that the CPI's tailing factor in the third quarter is around 0.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points narrower than the second quarter. Second, liquidity is tightening. Affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike and the normalization of central bank monetary policies such as Europe and Japan, as well as the impact of financial “de-leverage†on monetary and regulatory policies, market liquidity is still expected to be relatively tight. This is also a major factor constraining price increases. Third, the pressure on the PPI to transmit to the CPI will be reduced. The skyrocketing trend of house prices has been suppressed, and the price of living is expected to stabilize or even fall.
(Information picture from the Internet) The weekly index of edible agricultural products announced by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the price of edible agricultural products fell for two weeks in the first three weeks of June, and rose slightly during the week. Judging from the ten-year changes in the average price of major foods in 50 cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the main food prices in mid-June, vegetable prices fell in the first quarter of the previous year, and started to increase slightly in the middle. The prices of other foods were generally stable. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that according to the above data, food prices in June are expected to continue to fall slightly, which is expected to fall by about 0.8 percentage points. In terms of non-food prices, domestic refined oil prices ushered in a downward adjustment on June 23. On the whole, it is expected that the non-food price growth this month will fall slightly to 2.2% compared with the previous month. The hikes this month will rise slightly from 1.02% in the previous month to the highest of 1.16% in the year. Therefore, it is initially determined that the CPI growth in June 2017 may be 1.6%. Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, also predicted that the CPI growth rate in June was stable at 1.6%. He said that since June, food prices have continued to fall, and industrial prices have risen and fallen. However, due to the low base effect in the same period last year, inflation is expected to remain stable in the short term in June and July. Lian Ping expects that the pressure on price increases will ease in the second half of the year. The recent CPI rose slightly year-on-year, mainly driven by the hikes, and the absolute level is not high, still below 2%. In the second half of the year, with the slight decline in aggregate demand and the deregulation of risk by regulatory policies, liquidity has tightened, and core CPI excluding food and energy will not rise significantly. Judging from the CPI tailing factor, the June tailing factor of 1.16% reached the highest point in the year and then gradually fell. It is expected that the CPI will show a trend of high in the middle and low in the middle of the year. More experts predict that CPI will show a moderate upward trend in the future. Guo Lei, chief macro analyst of GF Securities, believes that the future CPI will continue to rise moderately, and the price of oversold food will form a supporting force. There are four main reasons. First, the price of food has oversold in the current cycle. Second, the absolute price of pork has reached the lower part of the downside, and the base will be significantly reduced from July. Third, the price of vegetables also has a base. Downstream, high-frequency data continued to narrow year-on-year; fourth, egg prices have reached the bottom of the past 17 years. Xie Yaxuan, the chief analyst of China Merchants Securities, also said that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will continue to show a slow upward trend. As the global economic recovery will support the further recovery of commodity prices, support for non-food CPI, and the increase in disposable income of Chinese residents will continue to benefit from consumption. Combined with the impact of low base last year, CPI will maintain its current upward trend. It is worth noting that the CPI slowly recovered after hitting the bottom in February, and this moderate inflation momentum was mainly driven by non-food items, rather than the food items that were dominant in the past. The report released by the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute recently pointed out that consumer prices will rise moderately in the second half of the year. First, the hike factor becomes smaller. The calculation shows that the CPI's tailing factor in the third quarter is around 0.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points narrower than the second quarter. Second, liquidity is tightening. Affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike and the normalization of central bank monetary policies such as Europe and Japan, as well as the impact of financial “de-leverage†on monetary and regulatory policies, market liquidity is still expected to be relatively tight. This is also a major factor constraining price increases. Third, the pressure on the PPI to transmit to the CPI will be reduced. The skyrocketing trend of house prices has been suppressed, and the price of living is expected to stabilize or even fall.
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