Weekly index: price index continues to rise Zheng cotton continues to rise
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Overview
The price index continued to rise; the national reserve cotton volume decreased, but the transaction was still hot; the spot market was good, the quotation was on the rise; the cotton yarn market trend was adjusted mainly; Zheng cotton continued the upward trend, the US dollar rose due to the Brexit referendum, ICE Cotton futures are lower.
First, the domestic cotton market
1. China Cotton Price Index Statistics
The average price of China's cotton price index was 12,707 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of 2129B was 13018 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of 2227B was 11,767 yuan/ton, compared with Weekly rose 51 yuan / ton.
2. Domestic market dynamics
During the week of reserve cotton rotation (June 20-June 24), the total amount of reserve cotton was 10,76 thousand tons, and the total volume of transactions was 105,600 tons (56,000 tons for textile enterprises and 49,600 tons for non-textile enterprises). ), the transaction rate is 98.14%, and the average transaction price is 12072 yuan / ton.
New cotton planting - Since mid-June, the temperature in most cotton areas in southern Xinjiang has risen in an all-round way, and the highest temperature has exceeded 37 degrees. Not only is the cotton field aggravated (the cotton buds and flowers are affected), but also the cotton bollworm, the scorpion worm, the blind oak Pests frequently occurred. On June 18, the Bozhou area of ​​Xinjiang showed two different periods of rainfall and hail weather for two consecutive days, causing natural disasters such as floods in Jinghe County. The Yangtze River Basin has experienced heavy rains, some cotton areas have been seriously affected, snails have become disasters, and rare tornado disasters have occurred in Jiangsu, which has a certain impact on new cotton planting.
Enterprise News - According to feedback from cotton textile mills and traders in Henan, Shandong, Hubei and other places, in recent days, ICE futures, Zheng period, and spot listings have risen sharply (CF1609 contract has risen more than 800 yuan/ton in three days). The daily average output of cotton storage is maintained at 20,000-30,000 tons and it is promoted by the weather disasters in the main cotton-producing areas of Xinjiang, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin. Recently, the spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the mainland have all shown signs of “heads upâ€. The traders who hold the source of supply have risen from the tentative report to "a price, not a counter." Some ginning plants began to prepare for the staff to enter the factory maintenance equipment in July to prepare for the new year's processing. In recent days, although the amount of cotton stored in the country has decreased, the enthusiasm for the transaction has not diminished, just as the summer sun is like a fire.
Processing volume - As of June 24, the actual accumulated processing of cotton in the professional supervision warehouse in Xinjiang was 3.53 million tons.
Warehousing volume - As of June 24, the actual accumulated warehouse cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.34 million tons.
Xinjiang cotton shipments - June 17 - June 23, after the Shaanxi Meixian checkpoint, the road transported 15,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week. From September 1, 2015 to June 23, 2016, the total amount of highway cotton inspection was 1,894,200 tons, and the actual transportation was 1,894,200 tons.
Zheng cotton futures - as of the week of June 24, Zheng cotton fell back, continuing the upward trend, the main 1701 contract innovation reached 13805 yuan / ton, as of the 24th closed at 13,430 yuan / ton; 1609 contract closed down 135 yuan to 13,345 yuan / Ton. Zheng cotton sold a total of 50,715,754 hands, the average daily turnover reached 1,102,400 hands, the average daily turnover rate reached 145.55%; as of June 24, the position decreased by 34,340 hands to 668,528 hands, the overall cotton price fluctuated upward trend.
Second, the international cotton market
Last Friday, the US dollar rose due to the Brexit referendum, ICE cotton fell, more than 1%; 1607 month contract 64.50 cents / lb, down 38 points; 1612 month contract 64.42 cents / lb, down 100 points. On Friday, the 1612 contract was in a downturn, with the lowest falling below 64 cents and the contract price falling by 150 points during the week.
Third, the yarn market
The market trend of pure cotton yarn is mainly adjusted. Conventional C32S and C21S are still sold, and they are mainly used for air-jet weaving of rich fabrics, while combed medium and high-yarn pure cotton yarns such as JC60S are blocked due to the goods, and the prices are slightly down; The price of cotton yarn is stable, the sales of polyester/viscose yarn 65/35 and 32S/2 are enlarged; the price of pure polyester yarn is not changed much, the sales volume of T45S is better than other specifications; the sales of R10S and R30S in the cotton yarn market are acceptable, and the trading volume of other specifications is not large. The price has a downward trend.
Fourth, the macro environment
1. The central bank: The exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies remains basically stable.
The People’s Bank of China said on Weibo today that the international foreign exchange market has been affected by the recent “Brexit†referendum. The pound and the euro have gone down, and the dollar has strengthened. The RMB exchange rate on the previous day’s closing exchange rate + a basket of currency exchange rates Under the mechanism of the formation of the exchange rate middle price, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar exchange rate. However, the exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies has remained basically stable, the market is expected to be stable, and the RMB exchange rate will continue to operate in an orderly manner in accordance with the existing formation mechanism.
2. RMB depreciation interbank liquidity has not been affected
The impact of the UK’s “Brexit†on China’s bond market continues. On the morning of June 27, the central bank suddenly lowered the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar by 599 basis points to 6.6375. The RMB exchange rate was under pressure, but the funds were not affected too much, and the interest rate bonds fell as a whole. As of the end of the day, the Treasury yield curve, except for a few deadlines, fell by a total of 3-5 BP.
3. In the first five months, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th, from January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,381.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from the first four months. Among them, profit in May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from April.
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